宋协法，刘 龙
（中国海洋大学水产学院，青岛 266003）

摘要：利用灰色系统理论，建立了GM(1,1)模型，研究我国海洋机动渔船数量、总功率、平均功率的发展趋势。结果表明，近几年我国海洋机动渔船数量呈下降趋势，海洋机动渔船总功率和平均功率呈上升趋势；到2015年，我国海洋机动渔船的预测值为269 695艘，海洋机动渔船总功率将达到1.62 × 107 kW，海洋机动渔船平均功率增长尤为突出，将由2005年的49.8 kW/艘增加到2015年的60.03 kW/艘。探讨了产生这种现象的原因。

关键词：渔船；发展趋势；灰色系统；预测

Forecast for fishing vessels developing trend based on grey systems theory
SONG Xie-fa, LIU Long
( Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China )

Abstract: The developing trends of marine fishing vessel number, sum power and mean power of fishing vessel were predicted by GM(1,1) models based on the grey systems theory. The results showed that the number of marine fish boats decreased, the sum power and the mean power of marine fishing vessel would increase in singulos annos. The predicted number of marine fish boats in the year of 2015 would be 285 826. The sum power would be 1.62×107 kW. The significant case was the increase of the mean power of marine fishing vessels. It was predicted to be 60.03 kW in 2015. The reasons for this phenomenon was discussed.

Key words: fishing vessel; developing trend; grey system; prediction

基金项目：农业部2008年农业生态环境保护项目“渔船调研及节能型渔船方案设计”资助。
作者简介：宋协法（1964—），男，教授，主要从事渔船渔机及设施渔业方面的研究。E-mail: yuchuan@ouc.edu.cn

(来源：《渔业现代化》2010.37(1)：56-59)