王晓蓉¹，贾宝红¹，欧阳海鹰²，孙英泽²，吕雄杰¹，胡 婧²，李凤菊¹
（1 天津市农业科学院信息研究所，天津 300192；2 中国水产科学研究院，北京 100141）

摘要：科学、合理、可操作性强的区域农业规划可为地方农业发展提供了科学理论依据和战略指导。将Delphi-AHP和GIS技术综合应用于水产养殖规划，不仅可有效结合定量分析和定性判断对非定量信息进行量化分析，而且可为规划信息的准确定位、快速处理、数据分析提供强有力支撑。本文以天津市武清区淡水养殖为例，在综合利用Delphi-AHP、ArcGIS软件和IDRISI软件的基础上，构建了武清区淡水养殖适宜度评价指标体系，获得了养殖乡镇的适宜度评价结果，将可养殖区域划分为“不适宜”、“一般适宜”、“适宜”和“非常适宜”4 种类型，并据此提出了武清区淡水养殖发展的区域发展布局、优势与劣势，以及发展规划建议。

关键词：水产养殖；规划；德尔菲法；层次分析；地理信息系统

Regional Aquaculture Development Planning Study
Based on Delphi-AHP and GIS
WANG Xiaorong¹, JIA Baohong¹, OUYANG Haiying², SUN Yingze², LYV Xiongjie¹, Hu Jing², LI Fengju ¹
(1 Information Institute of Tianjin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Tianjin 300192,China;
2 Department of Information & Economic, Chinese Academy of Fishery Science, Beijing 100039,China)

Abstract: Scientific theory basis and strategic direction can be provided for the development of local agriculture by scientific, rational, workable regional agricultural plans. The integrated application of Delphi-AHP and GIS technology in aquaculture planning, not only can make an effective combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to analyze non-quantitative information, but also can provide a strong support for accurate positioning of planning information, fast processing and analysis of data. The article took regional aquaculture development planning of Tianjin Wuqing freshwater aquaculture as an example, based on Delphi-AHP, ArcGIS and IDRISI, built up Wuqing freshwater aquaculture suitability evaluation index system, got towns suitability evaluation results, then freshwater aquaculture area in Tianjin was divided into 4 grades in terms of suitability: very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable and unsuitable. And it proposed regional development layout, advantages, disadvantages, and proposals of the Wuqing freshwater aquaculture.

Key words: aquaculture; planning; delphi method; analytic hierarchy process; geographic information system (GIS)

（来源：《渔业现代化》2013,40(3):66-70）