苗 雷，汤涛林，王鹏祥
（农业部渔业装备与工程重点开放实验室，十大网投正规信誉官网，上海 200092）

摘 要：以池塘养殖水体常规水质指标作为训练样本，在分析传统水质预测模型的基础上，构建神经网络水质预测模型。运用改进的BP算法对在线监测的水质指标进行分析、分类和预测，确定水质指标与其影响因子间的非线性关系，研究养殖水体水质指数变化梯度和分布规律，同时对水质状况进行模糊判别，为养殖生产提供预警控制，并对不同情况下的输出结果做出了比较。结果表明：该网络具有较好的泛化能力，预测平均误差在3%以内，实现了水质指标的准确预测和判别，收敛速度快，具有较好的实用性和较高的预测精度，基本满足环境管理的需要。

关键词：神经网络；BP算法；养殖水体

Study on neural network model for aquiculture water quality prediction
MIAO Lei, TANG Tao-lin, WANG Peng-xiang
(Key Laboratory of Fishery Equipment and Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture, Fishery Machiner and Instrument Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200092, China)

Abstract: A novel neural network model for water quality prediction is constructed with aquiculture water quality indexes in ponds as the training samples for the network after analyzing classical water quality prediction models. The water quality indexes monitored online are analyzed, classified and predicted with improved BP algorithm so as to confirm the nonlinear relationship between the indexes and their impact factors. The movement gradient and distribution regulation of water quality index in aquiculture water is studied while the fuzzy differentiation for the water condition is done in the meantime in order to provide pre-warning for next step in aquiculture and poultry. The results in different conditions are compared, which shows that the network has great generalization capability and high convergent speed with accurate prediction and differentiation of water quality indexes, the average forecast error was less than 3 percent. Simulation results prove that the proposed approach has high precision, good practicability and extensive applicability for engineering application. The arisen problems and solutions in the process of realizing the algorithm are also discussed.

Keywords: Neural networks; BP algorithm; Water quality prediction; Aquaculture; Aquiculture water

基金项目：国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）项目（2007AA10Z239）；

国家科技支撑计划项目（2007BAD43B06）

作者简介：苗雷（1979—），男，工程师，主要从事水产养殖自动化系统研究。E-mail:miaolei8@126.com

（来源：《渔业现代化》2009，36（6）：20-24）